基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究

依据1981—2006年中国小麦播种面积、价格和生产成本的时间序列数据,应用Nerlove模型,测算了我国小麦播种面积对价格和成本的反应程度。研究结果表明:我国小麦播种面积对价格的反应程度短期较小,但长期较大,这说明小麦供给对价格的反应存在滞后性;与价格弹性相比,小麦的成本弹性要小得多。因此,制定小麦政策时,应在稳定小麦生产资料价格的同时,加大对小麦价格支持政策的连续性,以促使麦农形成对小麦价格增长的稳定预期。

Study on Supply Response of Wheat in China Based on Nerlove Model

According to time series data about sown area,price and production cost of wheat in China during 1981-2006,this paper estimates the reaction degree of wheat sown area for price and cost by using the Nerlove model.The results show that the short-term supply response to price for wheat sown area in China is much smaller than the long-term supply response,which means that the supply response to price for wheat has a lag,and the cost elasticity of wheat is much smaller than the price elasticity.Thereby,the prod...