岷江上游地区农文旅融合效应测度及对策研究

目的 对岷江上游地区农文旅融合效应进行测度，分析不同县域农文旅融合效应时空演变特征，为岷江上游农文旅融合高质量发展提供理论参考。方法 文章以岷江上游地区的汶川县、茂县、理县、松潘县和黑水县为研究对象，运用熵值法、菲什拜因-罗森伯格模型、耦合协调模型对综合效应和耦合协调度进行量化分析；在此基础上，通过ArcGIS软件，探析不同县域的融合效应时序变化特征和空间差异。结果 （1）12年来，岷江上游农文旅融合效应水平逐渐提升，从2010年5县均为低等水平发展类型，到2021年汶川达到高等水平，其他4县全为中等水平类型，差距不断缩小，总体效应不断增强。（2）从时序变化上看，耦合协调度变化整体上分为3个阶段：2010—2013年为失调—协调过渡阶段，2014—2017年为初级协调阶段，2018—2021年为中级协调阶段。（3）从空间差异上看，耦合协调程度分为3个等级：汶川县为濒临失调，理县、茂县、松潘县为轻度失调，黑水县为中度失调。（4）从系统内部耦合协调度分析结果看，汶川县属于社会效应领先、文化效应滞后型，理县属于经济效应领先、生态效应滞后型，茂县和松潘县属于经济效应优先、文化效应滞后型，黑水县属于生态效应领先、经济效应滞后型。结论 岷江上游农文旅融合综合效应不断提高，融合程度不断加深，耦合协调等级经历了失调—协调过渡阶段到初级协调阶段再到中级协调阶段的变化，四大效应之间耦合协调度不断增强。5县差距不断缩小，但发展过程和当前所处阶段仍然存在明显差异。最后，针对综合效应时空变化特点及规律，提出农文旅融合效应提升策略。

STUDY ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE EFFECT OF INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURE, CULTURE AND TOURISM IN THE UPPER REACHES OF MINJIANG RIVER AND COUNTERMEASURES

The article measures the integration effect of agriculture, culture and tourism in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the integration effect of agriculture, culture and tourism in different counties, so as to provide theoretical reference for the high-quality development of the integration of agriculture, culture and tourism in the upper reaches of Minjiang River. The article took Wenchuan, Maoxian, Lixian, Songpan and Heishui in the upper reaches of Minjiang River as the research objects, and quantified the comprehensive effect and coupling coordination degree by using the entropy value method, Fishbein-Rosenberg model and coupling coordination model, and on this basis, the temporal change characteristics and spatial differences of the integration effect in different counties were explored by ArcGIS software. The results were listed as follows. Over the past twelve years, the level of integration effect of agriculture, culture and tourism in the upper reaches of Minjiang River gradually increased, from 2010 when all five counties were of the low level development type to 2021 when Wenchuan reached the high level and the other four counties were all of the medium level type, with the gap continuously narrowed and the overall effect continuously enhanced. In terms of temporal changes, the overall change of coupling coordination was divided into three stages: 2010-2013 was the disorder-coordination transition stage, 2014-2017 was the primary coordination stage, and 2018-2021 was the intermediate coordination stage. In terms of spatial differences, the degree of coupling coordination was divided into three levels: Wenchuan was on the verge of dysregulation, Lixian, Maoxian and Songpan were mildly dysregulated, and Heishui was moderately dysregulated. From the analysis results of the coupling coordination degree within the system, Wenchuan belonged to the social effect leading and cultural effect lagging type, Lixian belonged to the economic effect leading and ecological effect lagging type, Maoxian and Songpan belonged to the economic effect priority and cultural effect lagging type, and Heishui belonged to the ecological effect leading and economic effect lagging type. In conclusion, the integrated effect of agricultural, cultural and tourism integration in the upper reaches of Minjiang River has been improving, the degree of integration has been deepening, and the coupling coordination level has experienced the change from disorder-coordination transition stage to primary coordination stage to intermediate coordination stage, and the coupling coordination degree among the four effects has been increasing. The gap between the five counties has been narrowing, but there are still obvious differences in the development process and the current stage they are in. Finally, in view of the spatial and temporal change characteristics and laws of the comprehensive effect, the strategy of enhancing the integration effect of agriculture, culture and tourism is proposed.