三峡库区（湖北段）农业碳排放特征、驱动因素与趋势预测

目的 探讨三峡库区（湖北段）农业碳排放可为其制定低碳农业发展措施,农业碳减排提供理论依据。方法 文章基于2000—2019年三峡库区（湖北段）种植业和畜牧业的8类碳源数据,采用碳排放因子估算法对三峡库区（湖北段）农业碳排放总量进行估算,并根据STIRPAT模型及LMDI模型进行趋势分析与驱动因素分解,运用情景分析法对2020—2030年碳排放进行预测。结果 （1）化肥是三峡库区（湖北段）农业碳排放的第一大碳源,占总量的29.05%,其后依次是畜禽肠道发酵、畜禽粪便管理。（2）2000—2019年农业碳排放总量整体呈先上升后下降的趋势,其中在2014年达峰,总量为171.67万t,且当年的畜牧业排放量总体高于种植业。而农业碳排放强度整体却呈下降趋势,由5.37 t/万元下降至0.87 t/万元。（3）农业生产效率、农业生产结构及人口规模对农业碳排放具有抑制作用,经济发展水平则促进作用显著。（4）强化低碳模式下,2020—2030年预测得知农业碳排放强度将呈持续下降趋势,农业碳排放总量趋于降低,表明库区农业可实现绿色低碳和高质量发展。结论 虽然三峡库区（湖北段）农业碳减排仍存在压力,但农业碳排放量的负增长和碳排放强度的持续下降会促进碳达峰,服务碳中和,以实现“双碳”目标。

CHARACTERISTICS, DRIVING FACTORS AND TREND PREDICTION OF AGRICULTURE CARBON EMISSION IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA (HUBEI SECTION)

The study of agricultural carbon emissions can provide references for formulating low-carbon agricultural development measures and helping reduce agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Hubei section). Based on the eight types of carbon source data of planting and animal husbandry in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Hubei section) from 2000 to 2019, this paper estimated the total agricultural carbon emissions by the carbon emission factor estimation method, analyzed the trend and decomposed the driving factors based on the STIRPAT model and LMDI model, and predicted the carbon emissions from 2020 to 2030 on account of the scenario analysis method. The results were showed as follows. (1) Chemical fertilizer was the largest carbon source in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Hubei section), accounting for 29.05% of the total agricultural carbon emissions, followed by intestinal fermentation of livestock and poultry and management of livestock and poultry manure. (2) From 2000 to 2019, the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in the past 20 years showed an overall upwards trend and then a downwards trend. The highest agricultural carbon emission was in 2014, with a total amount of 1.716 7 million tons. The emissions from animal husbandry were generally higher than those from planting. Agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a downwards trend, from 5.37 t/million yuan to 0.87 t/million yuan. (3) Agricultural production efficiency, agricultural production structure and population size can inhibit agricultural carbon emissions, while the level of economic development significantly promoted it. (4) Under the enhanced low-carbon model, the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions would continue to decline from 2020 to 2030, and the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions would tend to decrease, indicating that agriculture in the reservoir area could achieve green, low-carbon and high-quality development. In summary, although, there is still pressure on agricultural carbon emission reduction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Hubei section), the negative growth of agricultural carbon emissions and the continuous decline of carbon emission intensity will promote the carbon peak and serve carbon neutrality, so as to achieve the "double carbon" goal.