金融压力对中国实体经济冲击研究

本文首先参考现有文献对已有的金融压力度量方法及应用做了梳理，然后选择2006年1月~2014年9月，包含金融政策环境、银行业为主的金融机构、金融市场和外汇市场等在内的主要因素指标，并通过加权平均后再进行标准化处理的方式合成各自项风险压力指数，再汇总合成系统性金融压力指数并做出判断分析。然后利用采购经理合成指数以代替实体经济的发展状况，通过格兰杰因果关系检定得到金融压力与实体经济发展之间的因果关系，并建立自回归模型以达到对系统性金融压力的预测，并最后针对金融风险的防范提出政策建议。

Research of the Financial Stress Impact on China's Real Economy

In this paper,we reference literature on the concept and its application of financial risk,and then choose 2006. 1~2014. 9 period of the main factor index based on monetary policy environment,the financial institution banking,capital markets and foreign exchange markets. By the weighted average the paper synthesizes index to normalize their financial stress index,and aggregates synthetic systemic financial pressure index and makes a judgment. Using the purchasing manager's index in place of the development of the real economy,this paper gives a causal relationship between the real economy and the FSI by Granger causality test,and forecasts financial stress by building self-regression model. Finally,this paper concludes with policy recommendations for the prevention of financial risks.