企业财务危机预警指标阶段性预处理研究

本文采用Mann-Whitney检验、粗集理论中知识约简方法及财务数据结构下层次化处理的定性手段,对预警指标阶段性信息的差异性与重复性进行预处理。以商业类上市公司为样本,通过采用ANN预警模型进行实证分析。结果发现:在财务危机发生前两年,指标信息差异性对预警准确性有较大的影响;在财务危机发生前第三与第四年,指标信息重复性影响较大。通过不同的预测期相应采用不同的指标预处理方法,可以提高预警效果。

The Stage Pretreatment Research on the Early Warning Ratios of Enterprises' Financial Distress

This paper adopts Meann-Whitney test,reduction method and figurate instrument of layering treatment method under financial data frame to make pretreatment on the discrimination and repeatability of stage information of earlywarning indexes.This paper selects commercial listed companies as samples,by adopting ANN earlywarning models to make empirical analysis,the results shows that in the beginning two years of financial distress,the discrimination of indexes has bigger impacts on the veracity of earlywarning;during the third and fourth year,the repeatability has more impacts.We can prove earlywarning effects by choosing different index pretreatment method in different prognosticate period.