| 汇率变动与贸易余额——基于政策干预和预期因素的模型分析和实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁立俊,游桂芬.汇率变动与贸易余额——基于政策干预和预期因素的模型分析和实证研究[J].国际经贸探索,2011(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁立俊 游桂芬 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院;中国农业银行南海罗村支行; |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省社科规划项目(GD10CYJ07) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章重点讨论了政策干预下的汇率走势,以及预期因素作用下进口商和消费者的行为模式,在假定马歇尔—勒纳条件成立,汇率变动完全传递给贸易品价格的条件下,研究了汇率变动和贸易余额的关系。认为在政策干预和汇率走势形成稳定预期的条件下,汇率升值不但不能减少贸易逆差,反而扩大贸易逆差,反之反是。文章通过一系列实证检验和对比研究,发现上述作用机制在2005年7月至2008年6月的中美贸易中能够较好地成立。
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| 关 键 词： | 政策干预 汇率预期 消费者行为 贸易余额 |
Exchange Rate Change and Trade Balance: An Empirical Analysis Based on Government Intervention and Expectation Factor |
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| LIANG Li-jun,YOU Gui-fen.Exchange Rate Change and Trade Balance: An Empirical Analysis Based on Government Intervention and Expectation Factor[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2011(6). |
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| Authors: | LIANG Li-jun YOU Gui-fen |
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| Institution: | LIANG Li-jun,YOU Gui-fen(1.Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,2.Agricultural Bank of China Nanhai Luochun Subbranch,Foushan 528226,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the research on the exchange rate change under government intervention and the model of importers' and consumers' behaviors under the influence of expectation.It assumes that Marshall-Lerner condition is established and exchange rate changes transmit fully to the prices of tradable goods.It conlcudes that in the case of government intervention and market expectation,currency appreciation leads to an increase of trade balance deficit rather than a decrease,and vice versa.A series of empi... |
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| Keywords: | government intervention exchange rate expectation consumers' behavior trade balance |
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