A Case Study of Group Decision Method for Environmental Foresight and Water Resources Planning Using a Fuzzy Approach |
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Authors: | Ana X Halabi Jairo R Montoya-Torres Nelson Obregón |
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Institution: | 1. Escuela Internacional de Ciencias Econ??micas y Administrativas, Universidad de La Sabana, Km 7 autopista norte de Bogot??, Ch??a (Cundinamarca), DC, Colombia 2. Department of Computing, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia 3. Facultad de Ingenier??a, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Avenida Carrera 7 No. 40-62, Bogota, DC, Colombia
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Abstract: | Group decision-making (i.e., multi-expert) is an important subject in planning water resources. The inherent complexity and
uncertainty of real world urge many experts to be involved in decision-making processes. This paper presents an application
of the linguistic-label aggregation method in a real-life case study. The case was taken from a foresight exercise in Colombia
(South America) concerning environmental and water resources planning in a river basin. The group decision-making problem
is solved using a four-step approach based on (i) the evaluation of experts’ opinions, (ii) the aggregation of opinions for
each alternative, (iii) fuzzy ranking, and (iv) final assessment. Two main issues that are new in our work is that we consider
temporal linguistic labels and a fuzzy ranking procedure that is able to include the mean, the standard deviation, the fuzzy
membership function and the frequency of experts’ opinions for each alternative. The approach is developed and implemented
on a computational tool. Results show an efficient decision-making process, that is, the tool demonstrated to deal with shortest
time frames and to increase the efficiency of the planning resources, mainly because allows the decision manager to focus
on the establishment of criteria. The latter also leads to objectivity and eases the identification and discussion of elements
of consensus in decisions that otherwise may be embedded in individuals’ interests. |
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Keywords: | |
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