Short and long run democracy diffusion |
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Institution: | University of Wyoming, Department 3985, 1000 E. University Ave, Laramie, WY, 82071, United States;School of Analytics, Finance, and Economics Southern, Illinois University, Carbondale, United States |
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Abstract: | Does democracy diffuse across borders? If so, how long does it take? Can diffusion cause path dependence, such that if a region is initially democratic (or autocratic), it becomes increasingly so? In this paper I estimate short and long run regional democratic diffusion and account for feedback to and from other countries within the region. Although it is difficult to establish causality, I estimate that when regional democracy in year (t-1) increases, domestic democracy receives or “catches” 40–42% of the increase in the next 5 years, 55–61% in 10 years, and 68–85% in the long run prior to accounting for feedback. When I account for feedback, the average region converges to a unique long-run democracy level regardless of how democratic it is initially. I also provide region-specific and contiguous neighbor estimates, use the model to explain democratization waves, and estimate the alternative V-DEM dataset. In the V-DEM data, democracy diffuses much faster, although the long-run diffusion effects are comparable. |
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Keywords: | Democratization Democratic diffusion Error-correction models Autocratic traps D70 N40 O11 O17 |
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