首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     


Scenario building: Uses and abuses
Authors:Philippe Durance [Author Vitae]  Michel Godet [Author Vitae]
Affiliation:
  • Conservatoire national des Arts et Métiers (CNAM) Paris, LIPSOR, 2 rue Conté — 75003, Paris, France
  • Abstract:Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.
    Keywords:Scenarios   Strategy   Prospective   Foresight   Workshops
    本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录!
    设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

    Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号