Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes |
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Authors: | J Arjan Wardekker [Author Vitae] Arie de Jong [Author Vitae] [Author Vitae] Jeroen P van der Sluijs [Author Vitae] |
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Institution: | a Department of Science, Technology and Society, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands b Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands c Centre for Economics and Ethics of the Environment and Development, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, 47 Boulevard Vauban, Guyancourt 78047 cedex, France |
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Abstract: | Climate change may pose considerable challenges to coastal cities, particularly in low-lying urban deltas. Impacts are, however, associated with substantial uncertainties. This paper studies an uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system. This approach is operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, using literature study, interviews, and a workshop. Potential impacts have been explored using national climate statistics and scenarios and a set of ‘wildcards’ (imaginable surprises). Sea level rise, particularly in combination with storm surge, and enduring heat and drought are the most relevant potential stresses in the area. These can lead to damage, loss of image, and societal disruption. Unclear responsibilities enhance disruption. ‘Resilience principles’ made the concept of resilience sufficiently operational for local actors to explore policy options. Useful principles for urban resilience include: homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, redundancy, foresight and preparedness/planning, compartmentalisation, and flexible planning/design. A resilience approach makes the system less prone to disturbances, enables quick and flexible responses, and is better capable of dealing with surprises than traditional predictive approaches. Local actors frame resilience as a flexible approach to adaptation that would be more suitable and tailored to local situations than rigid top-down regulations. In addition to a change in policy, it would require a more pro-active mentality among the population. |
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Keywords: | Resilience Resilience principles Climate change adaptation Uncertainty Urban planning |
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