中央银行前瞻性指引的理论、实效考察及对我国的启示

本文对前瞻性指引的理论基础及主要国家央行的实践进行梳理总结,对前瞻性指引的有效性、存在的不足及实施前瞻性指引的前提条件进行了分析,指出目前我国应当首先加快推进以利率市场化、建立价格调控为主的货币政策操作框架,为前瞻性指引发挥管理预期作用,成为货币政策工具补充提供基础和前提条件。同时,也应当加强对前瞻性指引的理论研究和实证效果的收集整理,为未来作为货币政策工具的选择提供充足的理论和实践准备。

Forward Guidance Theory of Central Banks,Practical Survey and Illuminations for China

This paper first reviews the theoretical basis of forward guidance and the practice of the major central banks,analyses the effectiveness, shortcomings and preconditions of forward guidance. At present, in order to play the role of forward guidance in managing the public＇s expectations,we should first accelerate the liberalization of interest rate,set the monetary policy framework with the price control as the main part. At the same time,we should strengthen the collection of the theoretical research and empirical evidences of forward guidance,so as to provide sufficient theoretical and practical preparation for choosing it as the prospective tool of monetary policy.