中国“货币超发”：判断标准、成因及其治理

2013年10月末，我国广义货币余额达到107万亿元，与GDP之比接近200%，M2/GDP也被广泛用来佐证我国货币已经超发的论点，但简单地将M2与GDP相对应，论证货币超发缺乏严谨的理论依据与逻辑结构，对经济变量的解释力也不足。从IS-LM模型分析发现我国高M2/GDP的症结不在货币量的多少，而是货币对经济产出的影响效率偏低，关注的重点需要从“货币超发”转向为货币政策创造制度环境，解决的途径也不在“堵”而在“疏”。

CURRENCY OVER ISSUING OF CHINA: CRITERIA,CAUSES AND TREATMENT

By the end of October 2013, the broad money balances of China reached 107 trillion yuan, M2/GDP has been rising all the time in China, the ratio of monetization is nearly 200% now. The ratio of M2/GDP is also widely used to support the point of China now do exist currency over issuing. But simply corresponding M2 to GDP, demonstrating currency over issuing is lacking of rigorous theoretical and logical structure, besides, the explanatory power of economic variables is also inadequate. Analysis on the IS LM model showed the crux of high ratio of M2/GDP is not the amount of money too much, but the monetary impact on economic output in low efficiency. The focus needs to shift from currency over issuingto create the institutional environment for monetary policy.The settlement way is not blocking but dredging