Delphi as a tool for identifying future appropriate technologies in India

The concept of appropriate technologies with particular reference to developing countries like India is discussed. It is suggested that appropriate technologies should: (1) include the entire range of technologies from very primitive to very modern, (2) be available when required, and (3) have the maximum impact on the largest fraction of the poorest sections of the population, especially through increasing employment. The problem of identifying appropriate technologies that would meet these criteria has also been discussed. In this article we have attempted to use the Delphi technique of technology forecasting for identifying future appropriate technologies in the areas of food, health, and energy using respondents in India. Subsequently, we have analyzed our results in terms of the criteria previously assigned to appropriate technologies and have thereby evaluated our experiment.It is concluded that the Delphi is an adequate first step in identification of such technologies; however, it must be followed by more rigorous techniques (possibly quantitative) for assigning further priorities within the technologies identified by the Delphi. This will help in arriving at suitable policy decisions and allocation of funds to a few of the most important areas.Finally, two alternate scenarios have been presented (using the Delphi results as well as our own perceptions and observations of the Indian society), depending on whether appropriate technologies and policies are adopted.