基于局部调整模型的我国现阶段货币需求函数分析

借鉴成本最小化行为引发的局部调整模型,采用1999年一季度至2005第三季度数据,建立我国短期动态货币需求函数。回归结果显示,实际货币需求的收入弹性为0.166,利率弹性为-0.096,通货膨胀弹性为-0.645,基本符合一般市场经济特质。根据我国近期宏观调控目标进行短期动态预测,得出2005年四季度至2006年四季度名义货币供应量M1季度同比增长率平均为13.2%,表明在当前错综复杂的经济形势下,特别是外部冲击形成空前压力下,我国货币政策应保持谨慎紧缩倾向。

Analysis of Money Demand Function Based on the PAM (Partial Adjustment Model) in Current China

The reference of this paper is from the PAM caused by the cost minimum behavior, and then a short-run dynamic money demand function for china is established , adopting quarterly data from 1999 first quarter to 2005 third quarter of the year. The multiple regression result is accord with the characteristics of general market economy basically. It shows that the income elasticity of real money demand is 0.166, the interest rate elasticity of real money demand is - 0.0958, inflation rate elasticity of real money demand is -0.645. According to the recent macro-control goal of our country, we have forecast the short-run dynamic and reach the average quarterly growth rate of money supply (M1) from 2005 fourth quarter to 2006 fourth quarter for 13.2%. It shows that the monetary policy of our country should keep prudent reduce trend under current intricate economic atmosphere, especially under the unprecedented pressure that external impact forms.