Uncertainty, the structure of production and the pattern of trade of centrally planned economies

Conclusions In this paper we have demonstrated that terms of trade uncertainty imposes a welfare loss on a centrally planned economy by reallocating resources toward the production of import substitutes and domestic consumption of exportables and a consequent decrease in the volume of trade. We have also shown that the centrally planned economies have developed a number of institutions, such as trade agreements and pricing rules, designed to minimize the losses caused by terms of trade uncertainty. Finally, we have suggested that the behavior of these economies during the post-Warperiod is consistent with welfare maximization under terms of trade uncertainty.I am indebted to Edward A. Hewett and Paul N. Rappoport for their assistance and comments at various stages of my work on this paper. Any errors and all opinions are entirely my responsibility.