奥肯定律与扩大的奥肯模型估计——关于中国就业与经济增长的数量关系实证(1978-2003)

奥肯定律表明与正常的(或潜在的或趋势的)增长率相比,高产出增长伴随着失业率的降低,低产出增长伴随着失业率的上升.作为一种经验规律,奥肯定律在西方很多国家的实践中得到了良好的验证.本文根据1978年以来中国的宏观经济统计数据进行模型回归检验,结果显示我国城镇登记失业率的变化与实际产出增长率之间不存在典型的奥肯规律.由于我国公开的失业率并不能反映真实的市场失业率,为此用就业量代替失业率,建立扩大的奥肯模型,分别对我国第一、二和三产业的就业增长与经济增长的数量关系进行估计.实证的结果显示我国第二、三产业的就业增长与产出增长和物价上涨均为正相关;而我国农业的就业增长与产出增长存在负相关.

Okun''''s Law and an Estimate of the Extended Okun''''s Model--Empirical Analysis of the Quantitative Relation between Employment Increase and Output Growth from 1978 to 2003 in China

Okun's Law shows that high output growth is associated with a reduction in the unemployment rate low output growth is associated with an increase in the unemployment rate.. As an empirical rule- Okun's law has been proved across many west economies. After regressing of statistics from 1978 to 2004 in China- this paper points out that the typical Okun's law doesn't exist in the relation between the change in open unemployment rate and actual output growth rate- because our open unemployment rate is unreal. Then- the paper set up an extended Okun's model to analyze the quantitative relation between China's employment increase and economic growth.