The value of nonindigenous species risk assessment in international trade |
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Authors: | Michael Springborn Christina M Romagosa |
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Institution: | a Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, 2104 Wickson Hall, One Shields Ave. Davis, CA 95616, United Statesb Center for Forest Sustainability, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, 602 Duncan Dr. Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United Statesc Program on the Global Environment, University of Chicago, 5828 S. University Ave. Chicago, IL 60637, United States |
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Abstract: | Managing the introduction of nonindigenous species is becoming a major goal of policy-makers at regional, national and international scales. Here we investigate, at the national level, the ideal design and expected net benefits of a risk assessment program for evaluating the desirability of nonindigenous species imports. We show how to enhance the statistical rigor of such a system by correcting a common non-random sampling problem encountered in the data. This correction enables model output to be interpreted in an economically relevant way and facilitates a theoretically rigorous characterization of the balance between trade and nonindigenous species establishment risk. Using reptiles and amphibians imported to the U.S. as a case study, we characterize economic outcomes over a range of cases and demonstrate substantial expected returns to such a screening program, relative to the current effectively open-door policy. Our results are informative for the current debate in the U.S. about whether to require federal agencies to apply risk assessment before allowing a species for import. The framework presented decomposes a complex argument about risk management into component economic and statistical parts, allowing for debate and improved understanding over each element to inform the overall program in a transparent fashion. |
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Keywords: | Ecological-economic decision model Bioeconomic Live animal trade Import policy Reptiles Amphibians Biological invasion |
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