欧元危机的逻辑

本次危机的根源是欧元区外围国家的过度举债和核心国家的有借必应。欧洲货币联盟的治理框架为成员国之间的过度信贷开了方便之门。为了研判欧元区的前景,将外围成员国分为四类:有清偿能力和无清偿能力的国家,具有纠正宏观失衡意愿和不具有纠正失衡意愿的国家。经过调整,西班牙和爱尔兰的债务状况已经好转;新任保守党政府或将帮助葡萄牙扭转颓势;希腊退出欧元区几成定局;技术派政府"新政"或为意大利迎来转机;法国对欧元区的态度或因大选发生转变。

Understanding the Euro Crisis

The origin of this crisis is excessive borrowing by some countries in the European periphery and excessive lending by some others situated at its core. The arrangements of the European Monetary Union fueled the expansion of domestic credit. To figure out the prospects of the eurozone, all periphery countries are divided into four groups: solvent versus insolvent and willing versus unwilling. One finds that the situation of Spain and Ireland has improved after macroeconomic adjustments; a newly-elected conservative government would help Portugal reverse the decline; Greece leaving the euro is no longer in doubt; the reforms implemented by the technocratic government would usher in a turning point for Italy; and France would shift its position after the forthcoming presidential elections.