财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整的影响——基于CGE模拟分析

在人口红利即将消失之际,我国就业问题呈现较为复杂的趋势。全球性的经济危机促使我国产业结构急需转型。在创新驱动、科教兴国战略和人才强国战略背景下,观察财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整的影响具有重要意义。本文构建了一个在复杂现实背景下分析财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整影响的CGE模型,模拟在人口城镇化过程中财政科教投入分步骤达到发达国家水平时各产业就业和增加值的变化。结果显示:财政科教支出对就业尤其是第三产业就业具有显著正向促进作用,对于住宿和餐饮等劳动密集型产业的影响尤其明显。科教支出有利于解决在城镇化过程中、人口红利期即将结束等现实条件下的就业问题。同时财政科技和教育投入对于促进产业结构转型具有推动作用,加速了向第三产业转型,使得我国的产业结构和就业结构更加合理。

The Impact of Fiscal Technology and Education Spending On the Employment in China:A CGE Analysis

The demographic dividend is on the decline,China presents a more complex employment trends.In the context of innovation-driven,strategy of strengthening technology,education and Human Resources,the Impact of the fiscal technology and education spending on employment is of great significance.We construct a CGE model in the context of complex reality to simulate the impact of fiscal technology and education on the employment.The background of this simulation is the China undergoing urbanization.The results shows: fiscal technology and education spending has a significant positive effect to employment,especially in the tertiary industry.The impact on employment in accommodation and catering industry and other labor-intensive industries,which is need to upgrade,are particular.The fiscal technology and education input is help to resolving the employment when China is in the process of urbanization and the demographic dividend period is disappearing.The result also show: the fiscal R&D and educational spending helps to the industry transform,especially to enhance the tertiary industry.