中国信息化的经济结构效应分析--基于计量模型的实证研究

信息化已经成为带动我国经济持续、快速发展的重要因素之一。本文首先依据信息化综合指数模型测算了我国近十几年来的信息化发展水平；在此基础上估计了信息化对我国国民经济的带动度和对三次产业的差别影响，发现信息化对工业增长的贡献最大；而后将信息化细分为信息产业本身的发展和信息产业对国民经济其他部门的渗透这两方面，并进一步探讨了这两方面对工业增长的贡献率，最后考察了信息化对工业内部若干典型行业的带动问题。通过上述逐层的定量实证分析，试图解释信息化对产业结构变动的复杂影响以及相应的调整取向。

Layer-by-layer Analysis on Economic Structures Effect of Informatization in China--on the Basis of Empirical Research on Econometric Model

Informatization has become one of the important elements for the sustained and rapid economic growth of our country. This paper first calculates China's Informatization Index of the last decade on the basis of the Informatization Index Model, estimates the impetus of informatization to our national economy as well as its influence on three major industries according to the calculation above, and concludes that it makes the greatest contribution to industrial growth. The paper, thereafter, divides informatization into two aspects: the development of information industry itself and its infiltration into other sectors of national economy, further discusses the contribution ratio of the two aspects to industrial growth, and finally examines the impetus of informatization to several typical industries. With layer-by-layer quantitative analysis, the paper attempts to explain the complicated effects of informatization on industry structure changes as well as the corresponding orientation of adjustment.