国际贸易机制对国内武装冲突影响的研究——基于回归断点设计的数量分析(1946-2009年)

国际机制不仅影响国家行为体,也影响国家层面之下的非国家行为体,并作用于两类行为体间的互动。作为最为成熟也是影响范围最为广泛的国际机制之一,国际贸易机制一方面通过机制功能作用于国内政治中的国家行为体与非国家行为体,另一方面施加影响于贸易议题从而刺激国内各行为体之间的互动。无论是机制还是贸易都与国际和平战争研究紧密相关,如"贸易和平论"与"国际制度和平论"。基于国际原因与国内产出之间的关系,国际贸易机制如何影响国内政治,特别是影响国内冲突的爆发风险?通过回归断点设计(RDD)与Logit回归分析,1946-2009年之间的国际贸易机制(关贸总协定/世界贸易组织)数据及国内武装冲突数据显示,关贸总协定/世界贸易组织成员资格的确能够在整体上显著降低国内武装冲突发生的可能性;但是,在分别控制经济因素、政治因素、社会因素、贸易因素和外部因素之后,实证结果显示国际贸易机制对各国国内冲突风险实际上是一种条件性的混合影响。

The Impacts of International Trade Institutions on Domestic Armed Conflicts: An Empirical Analysis through Regression Discontinuity Design

International institutions not only affect state actor but also have impacts on the non-state actor below the national level, and influence the interactions between these two kinds of actors. As one of the most mature and influential international organizations, international trade institutions affect state actor and other actors in domestic politics through its institutional function; meanwhile, it also impacts on the behaviors of domestic actors through trade-related issues. Both trade and institutional dimensions have close relations with international conflicts and peace studies. Through regression discontinuity design and Logit regression, the empirical results on GATT/WTO and internal armed conflicts (1946-2009) indicate that the GATT/WTO membership can significantly decrease the possibility ofinternal armed conflicts as a whole; however, the results show a conditional and mixed impact between international trade institutions and internal armed conflicts after controlling the variables like economic, political, social, trade and external factors.