旅游外汇收入对国民经济增长的贡献分析

依据时间序列的平稳性检验可以判定:旅游外汇收入和经济增长两时间序列之间应不是协整的.由于协整是时间序列之间存在长期均衡关系的一种表现方式,因此,与通常的认识相反.在长期的趋势方面,旅游外汇收入与经济增长之间其实便并不存在长期的均衡关系.此外,VAR模型及其Granger因果关系检验也说明,我国的旅游外汇收入与经济增长之间即使是在短期内也是不能确定其相互间因果关系的次序的.既然如此,现阶段将旅游产业作为我国国民经济整体发展的"支柱产业"、"先导产业"、"重点产业"的时机便并不成熟.

An Analysis of the Contribution of Tourism Foreign Exchange Revenue to National Economic Growth

The stable inspection of time alignment can determine the incoordination between tourism foreign exchange revenue and economic growth.As coordination is an expression of long-term relation of equilibrium between time alignment,in terms of long-term trend,contrary to our thinking,there does not exist long-term relation of equilibrium between tourism foreign exchange revenue and economic growth.Moreover,the inspection of VAR Model and Granger causality indicates that there does not fix alignment of causality ...