山东农业绿色发展水平时空差异与障碍因素分析

目的 山东作为农业大省,分析该地区农业绿色发展水平及空间差异,识别各地市农业绿色发展障碍因素,对于实现农业减排固氮具有现实意义。方法 文章选取山东五大区域16地市,运用熵权法和障碍度模型分析农业绿色发展水平及其障碍因素,利用Dagum基尼系数解析其区域异质性。结果 （1）2012—2020年山东农业绿色发展水平呈现上升态势,自2015年提升速度显著加快。研究时期内资源节约最为稳定,环境友好先稳定后增长,产出高效显著增长。（2）从区域特征分析,山东绿色发展水平具有区域差异性,呈现“西高东低”分布格局,总体基尼系数处于略微下降趋势,空间差异主要来源于区域间差异。（3）分区域看,鲁中和鲁东属于资源高耗型,鲁中南和鲁西北属于产出低效型,鲁西南属于投入产出双制约型,障碍因素集中在耕地复种指数、有效灌溉面积占比、农民可支配收入、土地生产率、农业产值占比。结论 新发展阶段下,山东需警惕环境友好障碍度增长态势,加大农业农村污染治理力度,聚焦于精准方向与科学治理。基于障碍因素分析,针对地市面临不同短板提出拓宽农业电商、释放农村生产要素活力、发挥“潍坊模式”示范作用、制定最低流转年限等措施。

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES AND OBSTACLES OF AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

As a large agricultural province, it is of practical significance to analyze the level and spatial difference of agricultural green development in Shandong province and identify the obstacles to agricultural green development in different cities for realizing agricultural emission reduction and nitrogen fixation. Sixteen cities in five regions of Shandong were selected to analyze the level of agricultural green development and its obstacle factors by the entropy weight method and obstacle model, and the regional heterogeneity was analyzed by Dagum Gini index. The results were showed as follows. (1) The level of agricultural green development in Shandong showed an upward trend from 2012 to 2020, and the speed of improvement was significantly accelerated after 2015. (2) During the study period, resource saving level was the most stable, environment friendly level was stable first and then increased, and output efficiency level increased significantly. (3) From the analysis of regional characteristics, the level of agricultural green development in Shandong had regional differences, presenting a distribution pattern of "high in the west and low in the east". And the Gini coefficient was in a slightly downward trend, and the spatial differences mainly came from interregional difference. The agricultural green development in Shandong was mainly restricted by output efficiency, followed by resource conservation and environmental friendliness. (3) By region, central and eastern of Shandong province belonged to high resource consumption type, central-south and northwest of Shandong province belonged to output inefficient type, and southwest of Shandong province belonged to input-output double restriction type. The obstacles were concentrated in the multiple cropping index of cultivated land, the proportion of effective irrigation area, farmers'' disposable income, land productivity and the proportion of agricultural output value. Generally, in the new stage of development, Shandong needs to be alert to the growth of environmentally friendly barriers, strengthen the control of agriculture and rural pollution, and focus on accurate direction and scientific control. Based on the analysis of obstacle factors, it puts forward measures to expand agricultural e-commerce, release the vitality of rural production factors, play the demonstration role of "Weifang model", formulate minimum transfer period for different short board faced by different regions.