甘肃省经济增长与碳排放脱钩现状与原因分析——基于脱钩分解理论

首先基于Tapio脱钩模型并利用2001年—2011年相关数据研究了甘肃省在西北五省经济增长与碳排放的"脱钩"现状中所处的地位,然后通过链式因果分解和LMDI因素分解法对甘肃省"脱钩"的原因进行了定量分析。研究结果表明:甘肃省总体呈弱脱钩状态,在西北五省中脱钩状态最好,且优于全国平均水平;能源强度效应是促进甘肃省"脱钩"的主要原因,能源碳强度效应正逐渐成为促进"脱钩"的另一个原因,而工业化效应、城镇化效应、经济发展效应是抑制"脱钩"的主要原因。最后,基于研究结论给出了推动甘肃省经济增长与碳排放脱钩的一些建议。

The Analysis on the Degree and Reasons of the Decoupling in the Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Gansu Province-Based on the Theory of Decoupling Decomposition

Based on Tapio decoupling model and relevant statistic data from 2001 to 2011, first, this study describes the present situation of the decoupling position of economic growth and carbon emissions about the five northwest provinces. Then the author uses the methods of the chain factors decomposition and LMDI decomposition to carry on the quantitative analysis to find out the main decoupling reasons in Gansu. The results show that Gansu is in the weak decoupling state and the decoupling degree is the best of the five northwest provinces. Furthermore it is better than the national average level. For Gansu, energy intensity effect is the main reason to promote decoupling and the energy carbon intensity effect is becoming another. But the effects of industrialization, urbanization and economic development are the main reasons to suppress the decoupling. Thus several suggestions are proposed for promoting decoupling in Gansu province.