生命周期曲线预测模型在高科技产品中的应用

项目售卖型高科技产品的需求为项目拉动式离散型需求,需求波动大,高科技产品升级换代快,企业的需求管理难度大,企业经营风险高。针对此类型产品如何运用生命周期预测模型进行需求管理,进行了分析研究。应用某企业实际销量为分析样本,运用生命周期曲线预测模型来计算参数,通过计算的参数运用模型测算预测销量,最后通过预测销量与实际需求的对比分析指出了生命周期曲线预测模型的应用局限性,并通过分析偏离原因,得出该模型在高科技产品中的适用范围与修正措施,为后续项目售卖型高科技产品的需求管理提供了研究方向。

Application of Life Circle Curve Model in High-tech Product Sales Forecasting

Using the actual sales figure of a certain enterprise as experiment sample,the paper employs life circle curve forecasting model to predict its sales of a certain period which is then compared to the actual demand volume of the period;the discrepancy between the two is analyzed to show the limitations of the model for which causes are uncovered and the applicable scope of the model is obtained and necessary rectification measures if it's to be used in the forecasting of high-tech products are presented.