| 基于灰色模型的怀来公路货运量预测的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋玉恒,乔建刚. 基于灰色模型的怀来公路货运量预测的研究[J]. 物流科技, 2009, 32(10): 40-42 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋玉恒 乔建刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北省怀来县交通局,河北,怀来,075400
2. 河北工业大学,土木工程学院,天津,300131 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北工业大学博士基金资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了把怀来建设成为京西物流港，以系统工程学、交通规划为基础，采用灰色预测模型法，先对怀来公路货物运输量进行实地调查．通过把调查的数据整理聚类分析，以数据为依据构造怀来公路货运灰色模型，用该模型对怀来的货运量进行预测，并对灰色模型进行了验证，最后确定了近期怀来公路货运量，同时也为交通部门制定相关政策和科学决策提供了强有力的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 货运 灰色模型 预测 |
Based on Gray Model to Research the Forecasting of Huailai's Road Freight Volume |
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| SONG Yu-heng,QIAO Jian-gang. Based on Gray Model to Research the Forecasting of Huailai's Road Freight Volume[J]. Logistics Management, 2009, 32(10): 40-42 |
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| Authors: | SONG Yu-heng QIAO Jian-gang |
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| Affiliation: | SONG Yu-heng, QIAO Jian-gang(1. Huailai Communication Bureau, Huailai 075400, China; 2. College of Civil Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300131, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to make Huailai become a logistic harbor in Jingxi, they based on systems engineering, transport planning and use gray forecasting model method to conduct a field investigation of Huailai＇s road freight volume at first. Through processing and cluster analysis the survey data, they based on the data to structure Huailai＇s road freight gray forecasting model and use the model to predict Huailai＇s road freight volume. Then, they verify the gray model and finally determine the recent Huailai＇s road freight, as well as providing a strong basis for traffic department to developing relevant policy and scientific decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | freight gray model forecast |
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