近50 a玛纳斯河流域上游气候变化的分析

根据玛纳斯河流域上游肯斯瓦特水文站1959—2008年气温、降水量及1984—2000年蒸发量观测资料,运用线性回归、Pearson相关系数、5 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验以及Morlet小波分析方法对流域上游气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明①近50 a玛纳斯河流域上游气候总体趋向于暖湿,其中年均气温显著升高,且年内气温变化存在明显的季节差异,夏、秋两季增温趋势显著,降水量总体也呈增加趋势,但不够显著,且年内分配不均匀,降水量主要集中在春、夏两季;②近20 a流域年蒸发量围绕均值1 651.2 mm上下波动,总体呈微小增加趋势;③气温和降水量在20世纪90年代期间发生由低向高的突变,并且存在明显的年际周期变化。

Climate Change in the Upstream of Manas River Basin in the Past 5 Decades

According to observed data of temperature, precipitation series (1959-2008) and evaporation series (1984-2000) at Kensiwate hydrological gauging station in the upstream of Manas River Basin. We analysed the climate change in this region by using linear regression, Pearson correlation coefficient, moving average for five years, Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. Results showed that 1) the climate of upstream Manas River Basin was mostly warm and wet in the past 5 decades. The annual average temperature increased remarkably with obvious seasonal difference within the year (temperature increased in summer and autumn). Precipitation was increasing as a whole but was not significant, and distributed unevenly within the year (precipitation concentrated in spring and summer); 2) The annual evaporation fluctuated around 1651.2 mm in the recent two decades, displaying a trend of slight increase; 3) Temperature and precipitation increased abruptly from low level to high level during the 1990s, and there was an obvious inter-annual cycle change.