India's Manufactured Exports: Comparative Structure and Prospects |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Mathematics, Dibrugarh University,Dibrugarh, India;2. Department of Economics, Queen’s University Management School, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK;3. DIW Berlin and Department of Economics, Louisiana State University, LA, USA;1. Business School, Beijing Normal University, China;2. PricewaterhouseCoopers, United States;3. China Center for Economic Research (CCER), National School of Development, Peking University, China |
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| Abstract: | The technological structure of export matters for their growth: learning and path dependence mean that structures are difficult to change as technologies evolve. Trade liberalization per se is insufficient. Countries need to upgrade domestic skill and technology and attract sophisticated foreign direct investment (FDI) to “dynamise” their export structures. A comparative analysis of Indian manufactured exports suggests that their structure and positioning are not suited to sustained growth. The base for rapid structural change—through FDI or domestic capabilities—is weak. The current export slowdown in India reflects external conditions and may end soon; however, this does not assure rapid future growth. |
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