The theories of ‘stages of growth’

Abstract

The idea of a ‘virtuous circle’ has always been implied in the theories of ‘stages of growth’, though never systematically demonstrated, We are here concerned with two aspects of these theories: (1) the implied theory of circular causation with cumulative effects; (2) the implicit systematic biases. The biases operate through the selection of strategic factors on which interest is focussed and of assumptions concerning their role in historical processes. This selection of strategic factors and of assumptions about their role remains essentially a priori, however much illustrative material is amassed. It never is—and, in this teleological approach, it never can be—empirically verified or refuted. A fundamental preconception is, moreover, the similarity of evolution in different countries at different historical periods; this is why these theories can be used, and are used, for prediction. But similarity depends on the level of abstraction and the choice of features compared. Such comparisons can be refuted only by demonstrating that other principles of selection and comparison are equally possible—and, of course, ex post, that the predictions do not come true.