中国对日农产品出口的增长因素研究——基于CMS 模型的实证分析

日本是中国农产品出口的主要对象国,两国贸易关系相当密切。本文采用CMS模型对中国农产品出口日本市场的增长因素进行实证研究得出:中国输日农产品增长主要由日本国内市场需求增长所引致;产品结构效应对中国农产品输日增长具有显著的正向影响,而综合竞争力效应和产品竞争力效应对中国农产品输日增长产生阻碍作用。为扩大中国农产品对日出口,本文针对不同影响因素提出相应的对策建议。

Research of Growth Factors of Chinese Agricultural Products Export to Japan:Empirical Analysis Based on Constant Market Share Model

Japan is the main export target country of Chinese agricultural products,and the bilateral trade relationsbetween the two countries are quite close. This article mainly makes an empirical analysis on the growth factorsof Chinese agricultural products exported to Japanese market by using the CMS model.The result shows that theincrease of Japanese domestic market demand is the main factor which affects Chinese agricultural exportingto Japan.The structural effect has a significant positive impact on the growth of Chinese agricultural productsexported to Japan.However, the comprehensive competitiveness effect and product competitiveness effect have anegative influence on it.To expand Chinese agriculture exports to Japan,the paper puts forward some correspondingsuggestions based on the different growth factors according to the empirical results.