Real option valuation of abandoned farmland |
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Authors: | Michi Nishihara |
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Affiliation: | Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, 1‐7 Machikaneyama, Toyonaka, Osaka 560‐0043, Japan |
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Abstract: | This paper investigates the decision-making process of an owner of abandoned farmland that is currently restricted to agricultural use but will be available for nonagricultural use in the future. I make a real option valuation of the abandoned farmland taking prospective land conversion into consideration. Results from the model calibration demonstrate that a slight probability of land conversion greatly increases the land value and discourages the owner from cultivating the land. Further, the results show that a small gap in the anticipation of land conversion prevents the owner from selling or leasing the land to a more efficient farmer. |
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Keywords: | G13 Q15 R14 Real option Abandoned farmland Land development Land conversion |
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