我国总量经济波动的识别与结构分析

本文利用HP滤波、VAR模型的脉冲响应分析以及时变参数的状态空间模型对我国总量经济波动的结构因素进行了分析,得出结论26年中,我国总量经济波动既受需求冲击的影响,也受供给冲击的影响,但两种冲击的强度和对总量经济波动产生的影响有所差异。1997年之前,需求冲击一直是经济波动的主要原因,但自1997年之后,由于两种冲击的互补效应,总量经济波动有所收敛,经济运行处于一种相对稳定的状态。然而就单位冲击对经济波动的影响而言,1998年之后,供给冲击逐渐超过了需求冲击,成为自2002年之后经济波动的主要原因。本文的研究结论表明,适时地由需求管理转向供需同时管理应成为今后宏观调控的主要取向。

Identification and Structural Analysis of Aggregate Economic Fluctuation in China

With the help of HP filter, impulse-response analysis of VAR model and time-varying parameter state space model, this paper analyzes the structural factors of aggregate economic fluctuation. During the last 26 years, aggregate economic fluctuation is influenced not only by demand shock, but also by supply shock in China. But there exist differences between the two kinds of shocks and their effects on aggregate economic fluctuation. Demand shock was the major cause before 1997. Because of complementary effect of the two kinds of shocks, aggregate economic fluctuation tends to be reduced, which makes our economy stable after 1997. As far as unit-impulse is concerned, supply shock gradually exceeds demand shock after 1998 and becomes the major cause for economic fluctuation since 2002. The conclusion indicates that timely transition from demand management to supply management should become the major policy orientation in the field of macro-economic control.