联合外汇干预的实证研究

本文采用干预分析模型来考察日、美两国央行对日元 美元汇率进行的联合干预的效果 ,以得到外汇干预是否对汇率产生影响以及该影响能否持久的结论。研究结果表明 ,1 998年 6月 1 7日 ,美、日联合外汇干预对日元 美元汇率产生了一定的影响 ,但联合干预与非联合干预在效果上没有重大差别 ,其影响很短暂。因此 ,汇率变动的最终决定性因素 ,不是外汇干预 ,而是货币所在国国内经济、国际经济的发展状况和国际资本流动等变量的变动

Empirical Assessment on the Effectiveness of Joint Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market

This paper is an attempt to assess the effectiveness and the its duration of joint intervention on the exchange rate by utilizing the intervention analysis model and employing the spot rates between US and Japanese currencies from August 15, 1996 to January 6, 1999 from Reuters. The conclusion is that there is no significant difference between the effectiveness of joint intervention and independent intervention. In addition the intervention has significant impact on the exchange rate, but has only short-term impact on the exchange rates.