深圳产业结构变动对经济增长影响的实证分析

经济发展与产业结构的变化有着密切的关系。本文在计量经济模型的基础上,以深圳1979年至2003年的数据为样本,通过对深圳三次产业增加值结构的变动分析、深圳产业结构变动的灰色关联分析以及深圳经济增长的部门因素分析,总结出:深圳产业结构变动过程中第一产业的比重越来越小;第二产业与经济增长相关度最高,但第二产业增长率对GDP增长率的贡献却低于第三产业,而其发展过程是随着深圳产业结构的变动,第二产业对经济增长的贡献越来越大;第三产业与经济增长相关度较高,且其增长率对GDP增长率的贡献最大,但近年第三产业增加值占GDP的比重呈现下降的趋势。

Impact of Shenzhen's Industrial Structure Adjustment on Economic Growth

Industrial structure and economic growth are interdependent. Based on the statistical figures of the industrial adjustment of Shenzhen since 1979 to 2003, this paper uses econometrics method to analyze the alteration of the added value structure of Shenzhen's thrice industry, the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth of Shenzhen in terms of the theory of grey system, and the department factor of Shenzhen's economic growth. Summarized that in the process of Shenzhen's industrial structure alteration the proportion of the primary industry is reducing. The secondary industry has most correlation with the economic growth, but the contribution to the GDP increase rate of the secondary industry's is less then the tertiary industry, and the development process is that the contribution to the GDP increase rate of the secondary industry is digger and bigger along with the alteration of the industrial structure. The tertiary industry has high correlation with the economic growth and has biggest contribution to the GDP increase rate, but recent years the proportion of the tertiary industry's added value presents a digression direction.