宁波居民消费和经济增长关系实证分析——基于1985～2006年数据的协整分析

消费是经济增长的一个重要因素,对经济增长具有直接的拉动作用,同时对消费的调节也成为国家宏观调控的一个重要手段。本文以宁波市为例,选取了社会消费品零售总额与国内生产总值的数据进行协整分析,并进行了格兰杰因果分析,得出了二者之间存在长期均衡关系。

Demonstration analysis of Ninbo citizen consuming and economy growth relation——analysis base on 1985-2006 data

The,It's an important factor to economical growth, which has directly drawed the economical growth. Taking Ningbo City as an example, Based on the Unit Root Test and Co-Integration Analysis and the time series data from 1985 to 2006, the article applies granger causality test and error-correct model to the empirical research on Residents' Consumption and economic increase in Ningbo city. The author draws a conclusion that there exists a long-run and stable equilibrium, and Granger causality relationships between them.