河北省小麦产量的波动性分析

河北省小麦生产对于保障全国粮食安全负有重要责任。文章测算了1986--2006年河北省小麦生产的波动指数、波动周期和波动幅度，揭示了小麦生产的波动规律，研究了单产、播种面积、成本收益率和国家政策与小麦产量之间的关系，并结合河北省小麦生产的现状，提出了稳定和发展河北省小麦生产的途径，即严格贯彻耕地保护政策，稳定小麦播种面积；降低生产成本，提高成本收益率；积极推进农业科技进步，保证小麦单产的持续增长。

Analysis on Fluctuation of Wheat Production in Hebei

It has the important responsibility to ensure the whole nation security of food for wheat production in Hebei. This paper uses fluctuation index to measure fluctuating cycle and range of wheat production in Hebei,posting the movement rules of wheat product fluctuation,studying the relation between per unit area yield,seeded area,cost earning ratio,country policy and wheat yield,combining with current situation of wheat production,puting forward the approach for stabilizing and developing the wheat productio...