预期转股冲击与企业杠杆调整——基于可转债的断点回归分析

股票价格高于转股价格时可转换债券内嵌期权由虚值变成实值状态，可转债持有者可能自愿转为股票对企业而言是一种外生的杠杆率下降冲击。文章从可转债预期转股冲击视角，采用断点回归分析的方法，探讨预期转股冲击对企业杠杆调整的作用程度和影响路径，同时分析预期转股冲击对不同来源负债的影响差异，并检验债务累积风险不同的企业杠杆调整的异质性。研究发现：企业增加当期杠杆率以应对预期转股冲击，预期转股冲击通过增加股价信息含量和提高股票流动性的路径影响企业杠杆调整，其显著提高经营杠杆而不影响金融杠杆。进一步分组检验表明，债务累积风险低的企业对预期转股冲击导致的预期杠杆率下降更为敏感，积极调整企业杠杆率，预期转股冲击不会叠加债务累积风险高的企业杠杆率。可转债融资工具有助于企业实现稳杠杆。

Impact of Anticipated Conversions and Adjustment of Corporate Leverage:Regression Discontinuity Design Based on Convertible Bonds#br#

When the stock price is higher than the conversion price,the conversion option change from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.The anticipated conversions of convertible bonds cause leverage drop,which is an exogenous impact to the firms.From the perspective of anticipated conversions of convertible bonds,this article uses regression discontinuity design to discuss how leverage responds to anticipated conversions of convertible bonds and its transmission mechanism,discusses the impact of anticipated conversions on different types of corporate liabilities,and examines the heterogeneity of corporate leverage adjustments with different accumulated debt risks.It is found that firms increase current leverage ratio to respond to the anticipated conversions of convertible bonds.Besides,the anticipated conversions affect corporate leverage adjustments by increasing the stock price information content and improving stock liquidity.Firms will first choose operating liabilities to balance the capital structure.In addition,the results show that firms with low debt risks are more sensitive to the expected reduction in leverage caused by the impact of anticipated conversions,and actively adjust the capital structure.In contrast,the impact of anticipated conversions will not add to leverage in high debt risk firms.Overall,convertible bonds help firms achieve stable leverage.