数字普惠金融对高技术制造业创新韧性的影响——基于系统GMM与门槛效应的检验

基于2011—2019年中国内地30个省份面板数据，运用系统GMM和门槛效应模型，检验数字普惠金融对高技术制造业创新韧性的影响以及消费升级和研发投入强度的门槛效应。结果表明，数字普惠金融及其覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度均对高技术制造业创新韧性具有显著正向影响；消费升级、研发投入强度分别在数字普惠金融对高技术制造业创新韧性的影响中表现出单一门槛效应和双重门槛效应。进一步的地区异质性研究发现，数字普惠金融仅对中西部地区高技术制造业创新韧性起到提升作用，消费升级在东部和中西部地区分别表现出双重门槛效应与单一门槛效应，研发投入强度在东部和中西部地区均表现出单一门槛效应。研究结果有助于丰富数字普惠金融应用于高技术制造业相关研究，为高技术制造业利用数字普惠金融提升创新韧性提供实践启示。

The Influence of Digital Inclusive Finance on the Innovation Resilience of High-tech Manufacturing Industry: A Test Based on System GMM and Threshold Effects

In the face of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) environment, innovation resilience has become an important factor to ensure the development of high-tech manufacturing industry. However, the innovation activities of high-tech manufacturing industry are characterized by high investment, high risk and long cycle. The improvement of its innovation resilience requires the support of financial services. As a useful complement of traditional finance, digital inclusive finance provides a solution to this problem. At present, the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry is barely tapped. In view of this, based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2019, the study adopts system GMM and threshold effect model to examine the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry, the threshold effects of consumption upgrading and R&D investment intensity.#br#The results show that digital inclusive finance and its coverage breadth,use depth and digitization level have significant positive influences on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. Consumption upgrading and R&D investment intensity show a single threshold effect and a double threshold effect respectively in the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. Further regional heterogeneity research reveals that digital inclusive finance only improves the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry in the central & western regions. Consumption upgrading shows a double threshold effect and a single threshold effect in the eastern region and central & western regions respectively. R&D investment intensity shows a single threshold effect in both the eastern region and central & western regions.#br#According to the conclusions, the paper provides the following suggestions. Firstly, relevant departments should utilize digital technology to empower inclusive finance, thereby to enhance the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. Relevant departments should utilize digital technology to integrate financial resources and improve the digital inclusive finance and its coverage breadth, use depth an digitalization level. At the same time they should reduce the information asymmetry between financial institutions and high-tech manufacturing industry and promote the integrated development of digital inclusive finance and high-tech manufacturing industry. Secondly, relevant departments should seize the opportunities of consumption upgrading to enhance the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. On the one hand, relevant departments should utilize digital technology to exploit the financial needs, and provide personalized financial products and services. On the other hand, they should establish an interconnection mechanism to timely transmit information about consumption upgrading to high-tech manufacturing industry, and encourage it to utilize digital inclusive financial resources to exploit high-quality innovative products that meet consumer needs, thereby to enhance innovation resilience. Thirdly, relevant departments should adjust R&D investment appropriately to improve the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry through digital inclusive finance. For provinces whose R&D investment intensitiy has not crossed the first threshold, relevant departments should encourage high-tech manufacturing enterprises to establish technology research centers and innovation incubation centers and so on, and carry out R&D activities and increase R&D investment; while for provinces whose R&D investment intensitiy has crossed the second threshold, relevant departments should guide them to regulate the R&D investment of high-tech manufacturing industry within a reasonable range. In addition, relevant departments of each province should formulate policies according to the local conditions of digital inclusive finance, consumption upgrading and the R&D investment intensity of high-tech manufacturing industry, and improve the innovation resilience of the high-tech manufacturing industry in the eastern and central & western regions.#br#The marginal contributions of the paper include three aspects. Firstly, this study starts from innovation resilience, turns the perspective to a specific industry, and explores the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. It expands the research of the influence of digital inclusive finance on innovation. Secondly, the study incorporates the consumption upgrading and R&D investment intensity into the research framework, and reveals the threshold effects of the consumption upgrading and R&D investment intensity in the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. Thirdly, the sample is divided into the eastern and central & western regions to clarify the regional heterogeneity of the influence of digital inclusive finance on the innovation resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry.#br#