数字时代中国老年人被诈骗研究——互联网与数字普惠金融的作用

本文采用具有全国代表性的中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,研究在我国数字化和老龄化背景下,老年人被诈骗情况的主要特征以及在不同维度的差异,并进一步挖掘其影响因素,探讨互联网使用和数字普惠金融发展在其中发挥的作用。主要发现如下:第一,虽然经济条件较好的老年人群体更容易成为诈骗目标,但被诈骗者接触后,相对脆弱的老年人群体更容易实际受骗,高达30%的老人在被诈骗接触后会实际遭受损失;第二,本文构造的防骗能力指数显示,经济欠发达省份的老年人防骗能力明显更低;第三,互联网的使用同时具有“曝露效应”和“学习效应”;第四,个体认知能力以及当地数字普惠金融发展程度是影响老年人是否实际被骗及损失大小的关键因素。最后,从异质性的角度看,使用数字技术的正面“学习效应”对信息相对匮乏的农村和女性老年人作用更大,超过了负面的“曝露效应”;数字普惠金融的发展程度对女性老年人的助力作用更为明显,但在农村地区的作用仍有待进一步提高。

A Study on Fraud Victimization among the Chinese Elderly in the Digital Age: The Role of Internet Usage and Digital Financial Inclusion

This study uses the nationally representative survey data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study to empirically analyze the main characteristics of the defrauded Chinese elderly and the variations across different dimensions related to rapid digitization and aging in China. The study also assesses the factors rendering the elderly vulnerable as fraud targets, whether they suffer actual losses after being contacted, and the underlying mechanisms, particularly the role of Internet use and the development of digital financial inclusion.
First, we comprehensively portray the overall incidence of fraud exposure and actual fraud and the amount lost by the elderly; summarize the regional differences in fraud prevention ability; and provide a group portrait of elderly people who were exposed to fraud and ultimately damaged. Next, using regression analysis, we assess the role of Internet use in the elderly being approached by fraudsters and incurring related losses. We also examine the roles of individuals' traits (e.g., health status, living arrangement style, and cognitive ability) and digital financial inclusion. Finally, we perform heterogeneity analysis along the urban-rural and gender dimensions.
This study has several key findings. First, Internet use has both exposure and learning effects; the former indicates that Internet use increases the incidence of the elderly being approached by fraudsters, whereas the latter indicates that it reduces the elderly's risk of being approached by fraudsters and consequently suffering losses. Second, we construct an anti-fraud ability index to analyze the differences in the incidence of fraud exposure and actual fraud and the amount lost by the elderly across provinces and find that the anti-fraud ability of the elderly in underdeveloped provinces is significantly lower than that in developed provinces. Third, the regression analysis shows that although elderly individuals with better economic conditions are more likely to be targeted, after being approached by fraudsters, the most vulnerable groups are rural residents, women, and the less educated. Fourth, further analyses show that both individual cognitive ability and the degree of local digital financial inclusion are the key factors affecting the previous two effects of Internet use, influencing the likelihood and amount of losses the elderly incur. Finally, the results of the heterogeneity analyses show that digital technology has a greater positive effect on the female elderly and on those living in rural regions because they are more likely to lack information than their male counterparts and those living in urban regions, and the positive learning effect surpasses the negative exposure effect among these women. The development of digital financial inclusion plays a significant role in helping women but needs to be further improved in rural areas.
This study makes four main contributions. First, the current literature on elderly fraud almost exclusively focuses on the actual fraudulent situation; this study not only analyzes the actual fraudulent situation but also the incidence of fraud exposure among the elderly, thereby expanding the existing local and international literature related to the fraudulent situation among the elderly. Second, because few domestic studies focus on the relationship between the development of digital financial inclusion in the region and fraudulent exposure among the elderly, this paper supports the study of the factors influencing the exposure of the elderly to fraud. Third, this study compares the fraud prevention ability among elderly groups in each province and provides a specific portrait of the fraud-exposed and defrauded elderly, which deepens our understanding of the situation of fraud among the elderly in the digital economy. Fourth, we systematically portray the basic situation of the elderly being defrauded; the factors influencing fraud exposure; and the regional and gender differences in being exposed to fraud, actually being defrauded, and the loss amount, providing a policy grip for efforts to prevent the elderly from being defrauded and improving their financial literacy.