后疫情时代中国智能驾驶创新扩散特征研究——基于创新扩散理论深度调研

基于罗杰斯创新扩散理论，采用立意抽样法，对涵盖智能驾驶创新扩散源、潜在受用群体的25家典型机构中的95名受访者进行深度调研，结合资料分析、现场观察等质性研究法，勾勒中国智能驾驶创新扩散实践经历新冠肺炎疫情前后呈现的不同创新属性扩散模式特征。结果发现：①新冠肺炎疫情虽然在一定程度上消解了L1—L5级智能驾驶创新扩散源与政府及限定场景潜在受用群体创新属性之间的矛盾，却将新矛盾聚焦于非专业人士教育培训与操作易用性诉求上；②新冠肺炎疫情加快了政府及限定场景潜在受用群体对智能驾驶创新的认知进程，使得智能驾驶创新劝服与决策过程直接进入实施阶段；③智能驾驶创新采纳者钟形曲线分布发生偏移，原先属于落后者、晚期大多数类别的潜在受用群体不断向早期大多数类别身份转换。最终，提出积极寻求疫情与复工场景应用机会、定向开发并拓展产品线、加速技术迭代与升级等应急举措，以面对突发性公共危机时能够继续维系有效的扩散实践。

The Diffusion Characteristics of Intelligent Driving Innovation in China in the Post-Epidemic Period: An In-depth Interview Survey Based on Innovative Diffusion Theory

Nowadays the issue of innovation and diffusion of intelligent driving technology has attracted wide attention of both academia and industry. As the most important theory and application development direction in the field of artificial intelligence technology innovation, intelligent driving can only maximize its economic or social benefitsthrough effective social diffusion. In China, while the intelligent driving technology innovation is widely spreading in the society, it is confronted with many challenges. At the beginning of 2020, China unfortunately became one of the regions most seriously affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in the world, and many industrial innovation diffusion practices, including intelligent driving technology, were hit hard. Under such circumstances, how has the innovation diffusion practice of intelligent driving in China been affected? How should we do to minimize the negative impact of COVID-19 epidemic and continue to maintain its effective diffusion practice? Both questions are worthy of exploration.#br#In view of this,this study starts from Rogers' framework of innovative diffusion theory. From October 2019 to October 2020, the researchers conducted in-depth interviews with 95 people from 10 intelligent driving enterprises, 10 enterprise customers and 5 government agencies. Through the in-depth interview surveys, the different characteristics presented by the diffusion practice of China's intelligent driving innovation before and after the COVID-19 epidemic are summarized.#br#The main conclusions obtained in this study are as follows. (1) From the perspective of innovation diffusion theory, the five attribute characteristics affecting innovation diffusion are comparative advantage, compatibility, testability, complexity and observability, and they have direct impacts on the efficiency process of innovation diffusion of technology. Among them, comparative advantage, compatibility, testability and observability have positive impacts on the diffusion efficiency process of innovation, while complexity has a negative impact on the diffusion efficiency process of innovation. Although the COVID-19 epidemic eliminates the contradiction between the innovative diffusion sources of intelligent driving and the potential customers on the characteristics of innovation attributes, such as relative advantages, compatibility, trial and observability, the new contradictions focus on the education,training and easier operation requirements for non-professionals. (2) Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the government and potential users of limited scenarios had limited cognitive level of L1-L5 intelligent driving innovation, and there was a cognitive gap between the objective development of technical indicators and the actual needs of the industry, which was mainly reflected in the contradiction around the attribute characteristics of intelligent driving innovation. But COVID-19 epidemic has played an important role in dispelling the cognitive gap between the government and potential users. This makes the intelligent driving innovation persuasion and decision-making process gradually easier and even leapfrog its path. The process of innovative diffusion may directly entry into the implementation stage. (3) With the process change of the diffusion stage of intelligent driven innovation, the bell curve distribution of intelligent driving innovation is shifted. People who were originally more inclined to adopt in the later stage or do not adopt the innovation have changed their attitude towards intelligent driving innovation, showing the characteristics of competing for early adoption. (4) Facing the sudden crisis of COVID-19, Chinese intelligent driving innovation diffusion sources actively sought application opportunities under the epidemic and resumption of work scenarios, targeted development and expansion of product lines, and accelerated iteration and upgrading of technology in practice scenarios to continue its effective diffusion practice.#br# The above research conclusions outline the diffusion practice changes and stress the measures of China's intelligent driving innovation before and after COVID-19 epidemic. In future research, further quantitative research based on the above research conclusions can be conducted to obtain more micro changes in adoption rate.#br#