数字经济、人才数字素养与制造业结构升级的互动关系——基于省级面板数据的PVAR分析

为厘清数字经济、人才数字素养与制造业结构升级之间的关系，基于2010—2019年中国内地31个省域面板数据，构建面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型，运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解，对三者之间的关系进行探究。结果表明，数字经济与制造业结构合理化和高级化均存在显著的相互促进作用；数字经济和制造业结构高级化对人才数字素养具有持续促进作用，制造业结构合理化对人才数字素养的促进作用不显著；人才数字素养未能有效发挥对数字经济、制造业结构合理化和高级化的促进作用。最后，从加快数字经济发展、促进人才数字素养提升和制造业结构升级等方面提出相关建议。

The Interactive Relationship among Digital Economy,Digital Literacy of Talents and the Upgrading of Manufacturing Structure:A PVAR Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

Digitization is the interactive development process of economy, individual and industry using digital resources. Digital economy creates good digital environment; digital literacy of talents provides strong intellectual support; and the upgrading of manufacturing structure expands rich application scenarios. It can be seen that clarifying the relationship among digital economy, digital literacy of talents and the upgrading of manufacturing structure, and realizing good interaction among them can help to build powerful digital country, powerful talent country and powerful manufacturing country.At present, scholars have not discussed the interactive relationship among digital economy, digital literacy of talents and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. There is rare research to integrate the three into a framework for comprehensive research using empirical methods. Furthermore, there is no literature deeply exploring the dynamic interactive relationship among them. In view of this, based on provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs a PVAR model from the two dimensions of rationalization and advancement of manufacturing structure, and explores the dynamic interactive relationship among digital economy, digital literacy of talents and the upgrading of manufacturing structure by Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition.#br#The research conclusions of this paper include three aspects. Firstly, there are significant two-way interaction effects between digital economy and the rationalization and advancement of manufacturing structure. Digital economy plays significant roles in promoting the rationalization and advancement of manufacturing structure, and both the rationalization and advancement of manufacturing structure can significantly promote development of digital economy. Secondly, both digital economy and the advancement of manufacturing structure have sustained promoting effects on digital literacy of talents, while the rationalization of manufacturing structure has no significant promoting effect on digital literacy of talents. Thirdly, digital literacy of talents does not effectively promote digital economy and the rationalization and advancement of manufacturing structure.#br#According to the conclusions, the paper provides the following suggestions. Firstly, relevant departments should speed up the development of digital economy, promote the digital transformation of manufacturing, and the coordinated development of digital economy and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. Relevant departments should increase the investment in research and development of digital technology, accelerate the development of digital economy, and provide impetus for the rationalization and advancement development of manufacturing structure. At the same time, it is necessary to guide the rational allocation of production factors through policies, encourage the digital transformation of manufacturing and further promote the development of digital economy. Secondly, relevant departments should create good environment for the development of digital economy, release talent demand for the upgrading of manufacturing structure, rationally allocate existing digital talent resources, and make joint efforts to promote the improvement of digital literacy of talents. Relevant departments should strengthen the infrastructure construction of digital economic, create good digital environment, and form an important driving force for improving digital literacy of talents. They should speed up the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing to digitization and intelligence, release the demand for digital talents in manufacturing, and drive the improvement of digital literacy of talents. It is necessary to adjust and optimize the manufacturing structure, to rationally allocate existing digital talents, to create atmosphere for learning digital technology, and to stimulate the learning initiative of talents, so as to improve their digital literacy. Thirdly, relevant departments should attach importance to digital literacy education, improve digital literacy of talents, and release positive signals for the development of digital economy and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. Relevant departments should strengthen digital literacy education and cultivate a large number of high-quality talents. It is necessary to improve the flowing mechanism of manufacturing talents,realize the free flowing and effective allocating of talents with high digital literacy among industries, and promote the development of digital economy and the upgrading of manufacturing structure.#br#The theoretical contributions of this paper include two aspects. Firstly, this paper puts digital economy, digital literacy of talents and the upgrading of manufacturing structure into a framework, analyzes the internal logic of their mutual influence, and innovatively carries out the integration research of digital economy, digital literacy of talents and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. Secondly, this paper empirically explores the dynamic interactive relationship among digital economy, digital literacy of talents and the upgrading of manufacturing structure using a PVAR model, which provides a new perspective for revealing the two-way interaction among them and deepens the research in related fields.#br#