基于跨案例研究的颠覆性技术演进特征分析

在梳理前人研究成果的基础上，得到颠覆性技术演进的14个特征范畴，从低端颠覆和高端颠覆视角选取电动自行车等4项不同类型颠覆性技术演进特征进行跨案例分析，遵循复制法对特征范畴进行反复修正、补充与融合，分别得到12个低端颠覆性技术演进特征和13个高端颠覆性技术演进特征，并据此构建全过程视角下颠覆性技术特征模型。通过对两种颠覆性技术演进特征进行对比分析，总结出在创造性、异轨性和迭代性上的特征共性，以及在价值主张、价值路线和价值检验上的特征差异。

Analysis of Disruptive Technology Evolution Characteristics Based on Cross-case Research

With the rapid development of information technology and the accelerated evolution of a new round of industrial revolution, disruptive technology has sped up the decline or extinction of traditional technology, and introduced the establishment of a new competitive paradigm, which has become an important strategic direction for countries all over the world to seize the commanding heights of economy and science. However, it is still difficult to identify and cultivate disruptive technology. The first problem is about how to identify it.The evolution characteristics and internal mechanism of disruptive technology are very complex, especially the "tipping point" and "critical state" when disruption occurs. It is difficult to accurately identify and grasp its evolution law. The second is about timing. Although the evolution process of disruptive technology is complex, once it is mature, it can quickly occupy the market, impact the mainstream technology and break the existing order. It is often only afterwards that we realize the seriousness of the problem and miss the time for identification and cultivation, risk prevention and active response. Therefore, exploring the evolution characteristics and internal mechanism of disruptive technology is in line with the practical needs of the state to scientifically understand, cultivate and develop disruptive technology and seize the initiative of future competitive strategy.#br#There are still some deficiencies in the existing research. In terms of research perspective, most of them put forward the paradigm of disruptive technology characteristics from the overall macro perspective. There is less analysis of the evolution characteristics of disruptive technology in different stages based on the whole process perspective. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the understanding of the evolution characteristics of the whole process. In terms of research objects, scholars focus on the evolution characteristics of traditional low-end disruptive technologies, and there is little research on the evolution characteristics of high-end disruptive technologies, especially the comparative analysis of the evolution characteristics of low-end and high-end disruptive technologies.#br#Through the cross-case study paradigm, this paper follows the research idea of "Literature reading and combing——Feature category extraction——Case correction and integration——Core feature refinement", selects four different types of disruptive technologies such as electric bicycle for confirmatory case analysis, and then it modifies, supplements and integrates the category of disruptive technology characteristics according to the replication method, and obtains 12 low-end disruptive technology evolution characteristics and 13 high-end disruptive technology evolution characteristics respectively. On this basis, two disruptive technology evolution feature models are constructed from the perspective of the whole process.#br#It is found that the two disruptive technology evolution feature models have the common characteristics of creativity, deviance and iteration, both have new functional characteristics and performance, originate from the new technological track, and show greater creativity and iteration in value transmission. At the same time, different disruptive technology evolution feature models also have different characteristics, such as different value propositions, value routes and value standards. Among them, low-end disruptive technologies impact the mainstream market from the low-end market through price advantage, and realize market subversion when the technical performance reaches the mainstream technical standards; while the high-end disruptive technology launches an attack from the high-end market to the mainstream market through technical advantages, and realizes market subversion when the price level reaches the level acceptable to the public.#br#This study has certain theoretical significance for supplementing and developing the existing disruptive innovation theory, and can provide practical guidance for the government and enterprises to formulate disruptive technology development strategy. In the future, we can further enrich the case selection objects, and discuss the dynamic role of the subject of the evolution characteristics of disruptive technology from a micro perspective in combination with typical disruptive technology representative enterprises. In addition, one or several typical enterprises can also be selected from the subversive technology community for rooted analysis to explore the evolution mechanism of different subversive technology innovation modes in the Chinese context.#br#