| 基于旅游学角度的游客量预测模型构建及其实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨春宇,黄震方,毛卫东. 基于旅游学角度的游客量预测模型构建及其实证研究[J]. 生态经济(学术版), 2008, 0(4): 124-128 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨春宇 黄震方 毛卫东 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210046 [2]贵州财经学院资源与环境管理学院,贵阳550004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金 , 人口·资源与环境经济学重点学科资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对旅游地游客量的预测研究,本文先构建基于旅游学基础的理论公式,再运用相应的数理统计方法进行数据处理以预测旅游地未来游客量变化趋势.在研究中引入游客量增长"速度"和"加速度"概念以及其他相关变量,构建了旅游地游客量的理论模型,赋予模型中各常数项以旅游学涵义及模型运用条件,结合旅游地生命周期理论探寻旅游地游客量最大值及到达时间的预测问题,在研究理论和方法上取得了一定的进展.
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游预测 旅游地生命周期 理论模型 数理统计方法 游学 游客量 预测模型 实证研究 Tourism Rules Development Based Theory Model Forecasting Number Research Demonstration 法上取 周期理论 预测问题 到达时间 最大值 结合 运用条件 |
Construction and Demonstration Research for Number of Tourist Forecasting Theory Model Based on the Development Rules of Tourism |
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| YANG Chun-yu HUANG Zhen-fang MAO Wei-dong. Construction and Demonstration Research for Number of Tourist Forecasting Theory Model Based on the Development Rules of Tourism[J]. Ecological Economy, 2008, 0(4): 124-128 |
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| Authors: | YANG Chun-yu HUANG Zhen-fang MAO Wei-dong |
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| Affiliation: | YANG Chun-yu~(1,2) HUANG Zhen-fang~1 MAO Wei-dong~1 (1.College of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210046,China,2.College of the Resource , Environmental Management of Guizhou College of Finance , Economics,Guiyang 550004,China) |
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| Abstract: | For the research of forecasting numbers of tourist in tourism destination,author takes two steps,first,constructs forecasting theory model which obeyed the rules of tourism law,then uses the corresponding mathematic theories to dispose tourists' data and forecasts the future tendency in tourism destination.In this study,author imports the concepts of velocity and acceleration and other relevant variables to construct the model for endowing the constant terms with tourism meanings,gives the conditions for us... |
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| Keywords: | number of tourist forecasting theory of tourism area lifecycle theory model mathematic method |
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