基于博弈理论对中美汇率政策的解析

在中美两国经济不断交融发展的同时,贸易摩擦日益严重。自2005年7月以来人民币对美元汇率已升值近17%,但对美贸易顺差仍旧持续。从博弈理论视角对中美两国的汇率政策研究分析,得出三点结论:单纯运用汇率工具调节两国的贸易,会形成双方谈判力量的"掠夺性"均衡;汇率与贸易政策冲突,贸易政策会将汇率政策变动产生的效应抵消;非经济因素使中美汇率博弈形成暂时均衡,但不稳定。

An Analysis of China and U.S. Exchange Rate Policies: a Game Theory Perspective

Trade friction is becoming increasingly serious while the economies of China and the United States blend with each other more than before. Since July 2005 the exchange rate of RMB against USD has appreciated by 17 percent, however China's trade surplus with the U.S. has continued to rise. Analysis of China and U.S. exchange rate policy from the perspective of Game theory shows: in adjusting bilateral trade, exclusive use of exchange rate would bring forth a'predatory' equilibrium of the bargaining strengths of the two sides; conflicts exist between exchange rate and trade policies, the effect of exchange rate policy would be offset by trade policy; temporary equilibrium of the China and U.S. exchange rate policy could be obtained for non-economic factors, though unstable.