效用曲线对避免风险型决策者的应用分析

一般来讲,期望值是决策者进行决策的依据.但是,当决策者根据期望值决策时,往往会与其真实满意度存在一定的偏差,而这种偏差通常会带来一定风险.为此,决策者可运用效用曲线分析方法帮助其决策,通过winQSB可求解出最佳决策方案,有效避免决策不慎带来的巨大风险,使效用值增大.这一理论对于在企业采取横向联合等经济行为进行决策时,提供了决策依据.

Analysis of Risk-avoiding Decision-maker Applying Utility Curve

Generally,expectation is decision-maker's foundation,while when making decision,decision-maker will deviate real satis-faction according to expectation,which will bring some risks.Hence,by means of utility curve,the decision-maker can make the best decision through winQSB,effectively avoid the big risk caused by careless decision,increase utility value,meanwhile,the theory pro-vides basis for enterprises when they make decisions on economic behaviors of horizontal integration.