基于技能偏向性技术进步的经济增长动能分解

在传统Solow增长核算框架基础上引入异质性劳动投入以及技能偏向性技术进步,从而将经济增长分解为固定资本投入增长、劳动投入增长、技能结构深化、技能偏向性技术进步、中性技术进步及效率改进等五种动能。研究发现：第一,中国经济增长主要由固定资本投入以及全要素生产率增长共同驱动,其中资本投入对经济增长年均贡献率为61.64%,全要素生产率增长的年均贡献率则为35.66%,中国区别于其他中低收入国家的发展奇迹背后正是较快的全要素生产率增长;第二,即使对于高收入国家而言,资本投入仍然是主要的经济增长动能;第三,技能结构深化以及技能偏向性技术进步是全要素生产率的主要来源,二者对中国经济增长的年均贡献率分别为32.04%和21.27%;第四,资源配置效率变化是引起全要素生产率波动的主要因素,资源配置效率下降是导致2008年后中国以及大部分高收入国家全要素生产率增速放缓的主要原因。

Growth Accounting with Skill-biased Technology Change

Based on the traditional Solow growth accounting framework,we introduce heterogeneous labor input and skill-bi ased technology change to decompose the economic growth into five drivers,including fixed capital input growth,labor input growth,skill structure deepening,skill-biased technology change,neutral technological progress and efficiency improvement. We find that China‘s economic growth was mainly driven by fixed capital investment and total factor productivity growth. The annual contribution rate of capital investment to economic growth was 61.64%,and the annual contribution rate of total factor productivity growth was 35.66%. The reason why China growing faster than other low-income countries is the faster growth of total factor productivity. Second,capital input was still a major economic growth driver even for the high-income countries. Third,the deepening of skill structure and skill-biased technology change were the main sources of total factor pro? ductivity,which contributed 32.04% and 21.27% to China’s economic growth respectively. Fourth,the change of resource allocation efficiency was the main factor causing the fluctuation of TFP. The decline of resource allocation efficiency was the main reason leading to the slowdown of total factor productivity growth in China and most high-income countries after 2008.