中国家具产业发展的地区差异与演化路径研究——基于泰尔指数的测度

为测度中国家具产业的地区差异并探寻中国家具产业的路径演变,基于2004—2015年中国28个省级行政区域家具产业发展的纵向数据,采用泰尔指数方法测度了全国家具产业的区域差异,探讨了中国家具产业发展的地区差异程度的域内差异和域间差异及其地理维度上的演变路径。研究发现:2004—2015年中国家具产业的整体差异呈现出逐步缩小的趋势;2004—2008年总体差异由区域间差异主导,2009—2015年则为区域内差异主导;2004—2015年中国家具产业经历"萌芽期""发展期"和"多元发展期"其对应的区域转移为"北移""中聚"和"西拓"。因此,缩小中国家具产业区域差异的重点是域内差异,同时要施行多方向演变共同发展的战略方针。

A Study on Regional Differences and Evolutionary Paths of Chinese Furniture Industry: Based on the Theil Index

⑴ Background——With the reform and opening up,China has become the world's largest exporter and producer in furniture industry. The related data show that the main income of Chinese furniture industry in 2016 is 859. 946 billion yuan and the annual export volume is 49. 189 billion US dollars. Although the total output of Chinese furniture industry is growing rapidly,the regional development of the industry is unbalanced. It is necessary to adjust the industrial structure. As an effective way to promote industrial restructuring,industrial transfer is being gotten much attention from many scholars. The provincial-level related data of furniture industry was selected to demonstrate the issue. The recommendations about coordinated development of furniture were inferred based on the calculation results.⑵ Methods——The data about overall and regional annual furniture production and practitioners were collected from the National Research Network Statistical Database, Chinese Furniture Yearbook 2004-2015 and Chinese Industrial Statistics Yearbook 2004-2015 of 28 provinces(excluding Taiwan,Hong Kong,Macao,Tibet,Qinghai and Ningxia). The following index parameters include overall differences,interval differences and intra-district differences were measured and calculated by Theil Index. In order to clarify the sources of differences,the eight major economic zones contribution rate of regional differences and internal differences were also be measured.⑶ Results——Calculating the total Theil index about the regional differences,the total regional difference Theil index and the total internal difference Theil index in China's furniture industry. The result shows that the during the period of 2004 to 2015,the regional differences in China's furniture industry show a downward trend,the total Theil index fell from 0. 439 in 2004 to 0. 196 in 2015,with the overall difference index falling from0. 309 to 0. 019,while the Intra-area Theil index fluctuated slightly within the upper and lower 0. 05 bands.Meanwhile calculate the difference between the eight economic zones and the regional difference between the rate of contribution. In 2004-2008,the difference contribution rate of furniture industry in different regions was greater than that in the internal,with regional contribution rate of 74. 3% in 2005. From 2009 to 2015,the two contribution rates were swapped. The differences between regions in 2015 was only 9. 4%. According to the result of the difference contribution rate of each economic zone,the leading of Chinese furniture industry is constantly changing. In 2004-2008,a single area dominated the development of Chinese furniture industry,with a contribution rate of 76. 1% in 2005 in the southern coastal economic zone. From 2009 to 2012,the rapid development of the economic zone in the central and eastern China has led to an increase in its leading role in Chinese furniture industry. From 2013 to 2015,the development of the furniture industry in the PRC has been dominated by multiple economic zones.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——According to the above research,the regional differences in Chinese furniture industry are gradually narrowing. Internal differences have gradually become the dominant factor in the overall difference. Chinese furniture industry experienced "infancy",a single area(Southern Coastal Economic Zone) dominates the development of Chinese furniture industry; the rapid development of the central and eastern economic zones has led to an increase in their leading role in Chinese furniture industry; in "diversified development period",multi-economic zones lead the development of Chinese furniture industry. The evolution of Chinese furniture industry divide into the three periods including "northward shift","convergence" and "west extension". The development of Chinese furniture industry should be based on its own advantages in various regions and carry out diversified development.