日本对外直接投资与产业结构关系的实证分析

上世纪90年代以来，日本对外直接投资出现了总体下滑的趋势，而此时其产业结构调整的步伐与其他主要发达国家相比明显滞后。本文运用Granger因果检验与Engle-Granger协整检验对日本对外直接投资和产业结构的关系进行了研究。实证结果表明：日本产业结构调整的滞后是其对外直接投资出现总体下滑的原因，且两者之间存在长期稳定的关系。产业结构调整中第三产业的缓慢发展对日本对外直接投资总体下滑的影响程度最大。

An Empiric AnaIysis of the Relationship between Japan's Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Structure

Since 1990s,Japan's foreign direct investment has appeared a trend of decline in general,but its step of industrial adjustment apparently has lagged behind compared to other major developed countries.This paper applies Granger-causality test and co-integration test to research on the relationship between Japan's foreign direct investment and industrial structure.Empiric results indicate that!the lag of Japan's industrial adjustment is the cause of the decline of its foreign direct investment,and there exist a long and stable relationship between them.In the industrial adjustment,slow development of the third industry has the greatest influence over the decline of Japan's foreign direct investment.