人民币汇率重估:实证分析与政策含义

本文以一般均衡理论为基础，构建了一个向量误差修正模型，对人民币均衡汇率和人民币面临的升值压力进行了实证研究。根据协整与误差修正模型，自2000年以来，人民币名义有效汇率处于被低估状态（平均低估幅度为17％）。根据冲击响应分析，人民币汇率升值对中国经济有微弱的通胀效应，对美国经济有微弱的通缩效应。考虑到人民币汇率一次性调整产生的即时效应和滞后积累效应，本文认为，中国经济可以承受的年度汇率调整为7％，这样的升值幅度不至于造成人民币的高估而产生通货紧缩和贸易赤字。为了让中国的企业和居民有更多的时间适应新的汇率机制，渐进式汇率改革策略应该坚持。

Renminbi Revaluation: Empirical Analysis and Implications

Based on the theory and practical situation of PRC, a VEC model for empirical study is constructed in this paper. The empirical study shows that Renminbi in terms of nominal effective exchange rate has been undervalued for 7 and 25 percent since 2000, and on average, 17 percent. Considering subsequent response of concerned variables to one time adjustment of Renminbi exchange rate, we estimate that 7 percent of appreciation is acceptable, which may not be large enough to make PRC economy suffer from overvaluation and trade deficit. To avoid shock from sharp appreciation, gradual reform of exchange rate toward floating exchange regime is suggested, which is in line with PROs gradual reform strategy on one hand, and allow firms and individuals to have time to adjust their behavior.