FDI挤入或挤出了中国的国内投资么？——基于面板数据的实证分析与检验

本文通过构建一个总投资的理论方程,利用1985-2003年间我国29个省市的面板数据对FDI与国内投资的挤入和挤出效应进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,1992年之前FDI显著地挤入了国内投资,1992年之后FDI则对我国的国内投资产生了挤出效应。但综合来看,在全国范围内FDI对国内投资产生了挤入效应。在以出口导向和劳动密集为特征的珠江三角洲地区,FDI的挤出效应比以进口替代和资本深化为特征的长江三角洲地区更加明显。

Does FDI Crowd in or Crowd Out of China's Domestic Investment?--Empirical Analysis and Test of Panel Data

By developing a gross domestic investment model, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between FDI and domestic investment using a large sample of panel data including 29 areas from 1985 to 2003. It shows that FDI will have the crowding-in effect on domestic investment, but crowding-in effect was dominant before 1992 and crowding-out effect has been dominant since 1992. Further study reveals that crowding-out effect is more significant at Zhujiang River delta whose character is export-oriented and labor-intensive than at Yangtze River delta whose character is import substitution and capital deepening.